Book: Factfullness

Book Review: Factfulness
Date: November 2022

When asked simple questions about global trends—such as the percentage of people living in poverty, reasons for global population growth, or the number of girls completing school—most people answer incorrectly. So incorrectly, in fact, that a chimpanzee guessing at random would outperform many journalists, Nobel laureates, and investment bankers.

In Factfulness, Professor of International Health Hans Rosling, along with long-time collaborators Anna and Ola Rosling, offers a clear explanation for this phenomenon. The authors identify ten instincts that distort human perception and explain how they can be recognised and countered.

1.The Gap Instinct

The first instinct challenges outdated views of the world, such as the “North–South divide,” “us and them,” or “developed” versus “developing” nations. Instead, the authors recommend classifying the world into four income levels:

• Level 1: Reliance on water from a communal well, primitive transportation, cooking with firewood, and limited, often malnourished, diets.

• Level 2: Ability to buy some food from outside the local area, save modest amounts, and purchase basic items like footwear, a bicycle, or a mattress—often typical for factory or mine workers.

• Level 3: Access to piped water, a motorcycle, a stove, and nutritious meals, with enough income for occasional family trips—generally considered middle class.

• Level 4: Affordability of cars and air travel.

How to control the gap instinct:

1. Avoid taking averages at face value; for example, removing a high-income city from a state’s figures may change comparisons significantly.

2. Do not compare extremes—headline news often exaggerates such contrasts.

3. Analyses should incorporate empathy to reflect actual social realities.

2. The Negativity Instinct

Humans tend to focus on negative events—wars, climate change, and rising investment in autonomous weapons—which can lead to the false belief that the world is getting worse. In contrast, data shows improvement in life expectancy, reduction in global poverty, abolition of slavery, fewer plane crashes, and increased forest cover.

3. The Straight Line Instinct

Assuming trends will continue in a straight line can be misleading. For example, while population graphs show an upward slope, growth will eventually stabilise. Similarly, despite the perception that terrorism is increasing, historical comparisons show it has decreased compared to earlier times, such as the world wars.

4. The Fear Instinct

“Fear can be useful, but only if directed at the right things.” Due to the negativity instinct, people often assume problems like crime and racism are worsening. Data, however, shows these perceptions are frequently exaggerated.

5. The Size Instinct

The size instinct is often felt by most of the people. 4.2 million babies dies in the year 2016. It was very disturbing and is still disturbing to read that sentence. However, the number dropped compared to the previous years. That means, world got better! Author asks readers to compare a given number to evaluate it. An interesting and informative example provided in the book is war memorial in Vietnam. When Hans Rosling went to Vietnam, he asked one of his Vietnamese colleague to take him to the Vietnam war memorial. Vietnam war happened in 1979. It was a single major event that crashed Nixon’s government in the US. Massive protests against the government were seen during those days, However, the memorial was a 3 feet hight brass plate. Compared to that, war memorial regarding Vietnamese war with Japan was 12 feet high. A monument commemorating war heroes fought with China was 300 feet high!

China was lasted for 2000 years, Japan war lasted 200 years and the one with America lasted just 20 years. Most of the Western publications highlight the American war because, America is in it. However, its significance in Asia is very less. It can only be known when looked into the contextual history. The three monuments that were shown to Hans Rosling were in proportion to the fight against the foreign rule.

6. The Generalization Instinct

Avoid rushing to conclusions. Look for similarities as well as differences within and between groups, acknowledge exceptions, and approach people with curiosity rather than preconceived notions.

7. The Destiny Instinct

This instinct is blindly believing in something and concluding that it remains so. Rosling says that all the societies are subject to change, even though its gradual. The slow change over a period of time will amount to big changes. In order to understand the change, one must keep track of gradual changes, talk to elderly people,collect examples of cultural change .

8. The Single Paper Instinct

Relying on a single perspective limits understanding. Multiple viewpoints provide a more complete and accurate picture.

9. The Blame Instinct

It is easy to assign blame to individuals or events, but understanding underlying systems is more productive. When analysing success or failure, the focus should be on the broader context, not just the triggering factor.

10. The Urgency Instinct

Acting on a perceived emergency without sufficient information can lead to poor decisions. Slowing down to gather accurate data allows for better, more effective action.

What do I like and dislike in this book?

1. It provides some quick, analytical tools to have a proper understanding of the world

2. However, on a conceptual level, I find the authors' approach more materialistic. It appeared that it is objectifying the living style and asserting that the entire world would be better if it followed Western life.

Why do I like this book?

1. It is a genuine work of Hans Rosling, as it was written on his deathbed. I believe this work is not produced for making money but to show people to show better ways to understand the world.

How do you look at society from select aspects of the book?

1. The negativity instinct has been discussed in depth. The scenario of making conclusions based on WhatsApp content is agreed to be the one current situation where this book makes sense.

2. More discussion followed on whether technology is impacting society or if the usage of technology is what impacts society. The group concluded that it is the usage of technology that impacts society.